Tesla is more than a car company. It is an energy company. But for the moment let's focus on the outlook of its car business.
I myself believe that Tesla will not only survive but might well do to the
automotive sector what Apple has done to the telecommunications sector. I
believe that it is very possible that Tesla will be buying up empty car
factories for generations to come and putting them to use building
exciting, beautiful and green vehicles for every buyer and every
purpose.
I believe that some of the legacy car companies will survive and thrive in the new electric/autonomous vehicle era, but others won't. I am in no position to judge who will win and who will lose, but the survivors will be the companies that combine solid business judgment and an ability to anticipate the market rather than follow it.
Let's review what Tesla has already achieved. First it produced a Roadster that was based on a Lotus platform. Next, it leapt into production of a luxury electric sedan that went head to head in the most prestigious segment - right up against the Mercedes-Benz S-Class. It then produced a large luxury SUV. Now it has produced over 150,000 Model 3 cars, all sold in the US and Canada, with European and Chinese customers only now getting their first cars.
Already on the drawing board are a small SUV, a semi truck and a second Roadster with hypercar stats (or whatever is beyond hypercar!)
What can prevent the company from becoming a dominant force in the industry? Well, one is some kind of internal lack of discipline or market miscalculation. Another is irresistible competition. And both seem equally unlikely.
Tesla has made mistakes. Apparently the Model 3's body was poorly designed and its manufacturing process was overly reliant first on robots and then on labour. But it is a company that learns its lessons. It quickly added a third production line in a tent. I am sure that its body design and manufacturing issues have already been addressed. Tesla will not repeat its mistakes. Count on it.
But what of competition? The world's car manufacturers produce wonderfully efficient cars. All the cars being produced are safer and more efficient than ever before. But they are also all more alike than ever before. At one time American cars were 20 foot long gas guzzlers with drum brakes. Japanese cars were tiny and tinny. European cars were novelties like the Mini or the Beetle or exotics like Ferraris and Maseratis. There were no Chinese or Korean cars on the market. Today you can't really tell a Kia from a Buick.
Car design, production, technology and segmentation of the market have all become standardized. The internal combustion engined car has been, in a sense, perfected, but in another sense we have come to the end of the innovation road.
Along comes Tesla the disruptor. How does the industry respond?
Friday, April 9, 2021
Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Twenty-Eight Years On
I am a lucky guy. The reason I am a lucky guy is that, 28 years ago, I met the woman who would change my life. It was not a great time of my life and I was licking my wounds from a failed relationship and, before that, a failed marriage. I had my career but in the back of my mind there was a little voice telling me that I was a fraud and that any day I might be discovered.
I was getting used to the idea that I would be spending the rest of my life alone when, out of the blue, I received a marriage proposal. It was all in fun of course, but I knew enough about the person making the proposal that there was something serious behind it. And so I played along and we had fun playing with the idea that we might get engaged.
We had a dinner date and - yadda yadda yadda - a few days later I ended up giving her a key to my house.
There were a few complications, the main one being that we lived in two different cities. But without figuring out where we would live, eight weeks later we were married. It was Remembrance Day 1992.
 |
| Our Wedding Day - November 11, 1992 |
I knew that she would always be on my side. I knew that she already knew the worst about me and accepted me as I was nonetheless. A mutual friend had warned her to stay away from me but she chose to trust her heart and her instincts. I knew that her love was real and eternal.
We watched the World Series. It was the year the the Blue Jays won their first championship. In my smoky Toronto living room we watched Twin Peaks and ate Chinese food from my favorite Chinese restaurant. We went for long walks along the boardwalk in Toronto and we spent weekends in her condo in Ottawa waking up whenever we pleased and listening to Keith Richards.
My mother was there and she was thrilled how about the woman I had found. I think she loved my wife from the first moment they met. And it was mutual. We had a few other witnesses to the wedding and it was small and perfect.
It was all so easy, natural and perfect. It wasn't until later, after a short honeymoon, that it occurred to me that perhaps we might have acted in haste and that it was somewhat odd to marry someone who had been a total stranger a few weeks earlier. As I recall, though, I had no doubts. I knew exactly who I was marrying and the quality of that person. And I knew my own heart.
In sickness and in health, for richer or poorer, and to the end of our days, I will love you, Angelina,
Sunday, February 10, 2019
6: The Tesla-Apple Comparison
Much has been written comparing Apple and Tesla. Much of the comparison if obvious and I agree with much of it. Both companies have transformed our expectations of technology in meaningful ways. I have been a user of Apple products for many years and its history – including many rises and falls – has fascinated me over those years. It is a story full of lessons about hubris, ego, genius, complacency and decisions made out of desperation. And, of course, luck. Apple was at death's door more than once before it figured out that it needed to take huge risks on products the world didn't know it needed.
In the beginning, Apple was the archetypal computer company started by two Californians in a garage. Now we know it as one of the world's most valuable companies with one of the strongest brand identities ever established. Along the way, Apple was about to fail at least a couple of times until its dramatic resurrection after Steve Jobs rejoined the company in the late 1990s. Jobs had been exiled from Apple and formed a new computer company, NeXT, whose operating system became the key to the rejuvenation the Macintosh computer, which itself dated back to 1984 under the original tenure of Jobs. Apple needed NeXT's operating system, and Jobs came with it.
Most users of iPhones, iPads and Apple Watches today probably know little about the origins of the company or its history prior to the 2007 introduction of the iPhone. By that point Apple was already a 30 year old company and on the way to health but hardly on the way to becoming an all-conquering giant of a company.
Tesla by contrast is still a startup, 15 or so years old, but it is only a little over 10 years since its first car reached its first customer. That car, the Roadster, was a low volume car and as much a proof of concept as a commercial product. Elon Musk, if not the founder, at least a founder of the company and very much it driving force, remains in charge.
I think that there are at least three ways in which Apple's resurgence under Jobs and the Tesla phenomenon under Elon Musk are parallel. The most obvious is the presence of a driven, visionary, inspirational and fearless front man who is fully in control of his company. Another is that these companies had confidence that their breakthrough products would succeed, even though they were not responding to consumer demand. The third is a willingness to bet the company on the basis of that confidence.
Mature companies and even immature companies in mature businesses cannot innovate like Apple did in 2007 and Tesla does now. There are simply too many forces aligned against big gambles. Tesla is already chafing at the bit as a public company. Elon Musk has made it clear over the past year that he would much rather take the company private. Instead of focusing on the growth of the company in the way that he would prefer, Musk and the management of Tesla have to respond to shareholder expectations, and it is galling that many of those shareholders are openly betting against the success of the company itself.
Tesla has poured vast resources into the building of Gigafactories and Supercharger networks. These are capital assets developed at great cost to the company’s liquidity and are necessary to success of the company, but in the short run these investments have kept the company in the red even as sales have improved dramatically. But these investments are a necessary part of Elon Musk's long-term plans to become a dominant market force.
Apple of course started as a computer company, pure and simple. There has always been a debate whether it is at heart a hardware or a software company, but until the 21st century no-one thought of Apple as anything but a computer company. When Steve Jobs announced the iPhone in 2007 there were two immediate reactions. The public saw the product as something revolutionary and desirable. The entrenched industry leaders in the cell phone business saw the iPhone as a massive miscalculation, and they was Apple as a naïve upstart venturing outside of its core competence.
We know which perception won out.
The same is true of Tesla and its cars. The public did not know that it wanted a sexy, functional and practical electric car until one existed. The established car companies have dipped their toes into electrification but failed to understand that electric cars are not geeky appliances for a market niche. Cars have to be sexy to capture the hearts of the public. This is not a new rule. But somehow no other company thought of putting that core precept together with an electric power train.
Those who bet against Tesla believe that so-called Tesla killers are coming and that when the real car companies begin producing electric vehicles Tesla will be revealed as an amateurish upstart, just as Apple seemed to be in 2007.
Today, Nokia, Blackberry and Motorola are still vainly trying to recapture the massive lead they had in 2007. Palm and Treo (remember them?) are dead. Every smart phone sold today is a slavish copy of Apple's iPhone. Some of them may be as good as Apple's iPhone and some may even be better. But only Apple had the vision and the courage to break the mold and bring to market a product that would come to be adopted as something essential but that nobody realized could even exist.
Tesla has taken a similar leap. It was not at all apparent that there was a demand for an electric car that would lead hundreds of thousands of sensible people (such as yours truly) to put down money on something they had never seen, could not touch, let alone drive and likely would not get for years. Without any advertising. All electric cars from here on will be inspired by Tesla and until something equally revolutionary happens, every electric car will follow Tesla's lead.
Just as Apple had to learn the phone business, Tesla is having to learn the car business. But the way cars have been made, sold and serviced in the past is not the only way. Only by imagining something radically better could Tesla make the breakthrough that it has. And only by belittling the upstart and imagining that their business must continue as before, have the traditional carmakers missed the boat on electric cars.
There have been some interesting announcements recently in the electric car market. Jaguar has the I-Pace in showrooms now. Audi and Porsche have announced some beautiful vehicles which have not yet been delivered. All of them, however fail in the most important metric – each of these announced and existing cars has less range than our Model 3.
It is as if the existing manufacturers believe that they just have to get products into the general ballpark already defined by Tesla and customers will flock to them and away from Tesla. I believe that this is a massive miscalculation. It may be – just as Android and Samsung have challenged Apple's dominance in the phone business – that a Tesla equal may eventually emerge from the pack, but I highly doubt that a Tesla killer is in the cards.
A final lesson can be taken from the Apple - Tesla comparison. Apple continues to refine its products years after the death of Steve Jobs. It continues to produce beautiful and well-designed phones, tablets and computers under the leadership of Tim Cook and Jony Ive, but Apple no longer innovates as it did in the days of Steve Jobs. Apple is now a trillion dollar company and no longer the upstart; it has become the industry standard, protecting and extending its market share and profits. It no longer has to bet the company and it never will again.
Apple's place in the tech world will -- one day -- be taken by a company which by necessity is willing to risk everything for a big breakthrough. We don't yet know who that will be.
Tesla, though, is still an upstart. As Elon Musk has said, he was forced to bet the company to ramp up Model 3 production this summer. He has said that the company was within a few weeks of death. He has also said that he will never again have to bet the company on a product.
This is reassuring, of course, but at the same time complacency will be the enemy of Tesla as an innovator. The company has to stay hungry, stay desperate and to continue to think of itself as on the edge of failure. One day Elon Musk and his ludicrous drive and focus will be gone. Then we will see if its corporate culture will survive. I have no doubt that the company will.
 |
| The Old Rainbow Apple Logo |
In the beginning, Apple was the archetypal computer company started by two Californians in a garage. Now we know it as one of the world's most valuable companies with one of the strongest brand identities ever established. Along the way, Apple was about to fail at least a couple of times until its dramatic resurrection after Steve Jobs rejoined the company in the late 1990s. Jobs had been exiled from Apple and formed a new computer company, NeXT, whose operating system became the key to the rejuvenation the Macintosh computer, which itself dated back to 1984 under the original tenure of Jobs. Apple needed NeXT's operating system, and Jobs came with it.
Most users of iPhones, iPads and Apple Watches today probably know little about the origins of the company or its history prior to the 2007 introduction of the iPhone. By that point Apple was already a 30 year old company and on the way to health but hardly on the way to becoming an all-conquering giant of a company.
Tesla by contrast is still a startup, 15 or so years old, but it is only a little over 10 years since its first car reached its first customer. That car, the Roadster, was a low volume car and as much a proof of concept as a commercial product. Elon Musk, if not the founder, at least a founder of the company and very much it driving force, remains in charge.
 |
| The Tesla Logo |
I think that there are at least three ways in which Apple's resurgence under Jobs and the Tesla phenomenon under Elon Musk are parallel. The most obvious is the presence of a driven, visionary, inspirational and fearless front man who is fully in control of his company. Another is that these companies had confidence that their breakthrough products would succeed, even though they were not responding to consumer demand. The third is a willingness to bet the company on the basis of that confidence.
Mature companies and even immature companies in mature businesses cannot innovate like Apple did in 2007 and Tesla does now. There are simply too many forces aligned against big gambles. Tesla is already chafing at the bit as a public company. Elon Musk has made it clear over the past year that he would much rather take the company private. Instead of focusing on the growth of the company in the way that he would prefer, Musk and the management of Tesla have to respond to shareholder expectations, and it is galling that many of those shareholders are openly betting against the success of the company itself.
Tesla has poured vast resources into the building of Gigafactories and Supercharger networks. These are capital assets developed at great cost to the company’s liquidity and are necessary to success of the company, but in the short run these investments have kept the company in the red even as sales have improved dramatically. But these investments are a necessary part of Elon Musk's long-term plans to become a dominant market force.
Apple of course started as a computer company, pure and simple. There has always been a debate whether it is at heart a hardware or a software company, but until the 21st century no-one thought of Apple as anything but a computer company. When Steve Jobs announced the iPhone in 2007 there were two immediate reactions. The public saw the product as something revolutionary and desirable. The entrenched industry leaders in the cell phone business saw the iPhone as a massive miscalculation, and they was Apple as a naïve upstart venturing outside of its core competence.
We know which perception won out.
The same is true of Tesla and its cars. The public did not know that it wanted a sexy, functional and practical electric car until one existed. The established car companies have dipped their toes into electrification but failed to understand that electric cars are not geeky appliances for a market niche. Cars have to be sexy to capture the hearts of the public. This is not a new rule. But somehow no other company thought of putting that core precept together with an electric power train.
Those who bet against Tesla believe that so-called Tesla killers are coming and that when the real car companies begin producing electric vehicles Tesla will be revealed as an amateurish upstart, just as Apple seemed to be in 2007.
Today, Nokia, Blackberry and Motorola are still vainly trying to recapture the massive lead they had in 2007. Palm and Treo (remember them?) are dead. Every smart phone sold today is a slavish copy of Apple's iPhone. Some of them may be as good as Apple's iPhone and some may even be better. But only Apple had the vision and the courage to break the mold and bring to market a product that would come to be adopted as something essential but that nobody realized could even exist.
Tesla has taken a similar leap. It was not at all apparent that there was a demand for an electric car that would lead hundreds of thousands of sensible people (such as yours truly) to put down money on something they had never seen, could not touch, let alone drive and likely would not get for years. Without any advertising. All electric cars from here on will be inspired by Tesla and until something equally revolutionary happens, every electric car will follow Tesla's lead.
Just as Apple had to learn the phone business, Tesla is having to learn the car business. But the way cars have been made, sold and serviced in the past is not the only way. Only by imagining something radically better could Tesla make the breakthrough that it has. And only by belittling the upstart and imagining that their business must continue as before, have the traditional carmakers missed the boat on electric cars.
There have been some interesting announcements recently in the electric car market. Jaguar has the I-Pace in showrooms now. Audi and Porsche have announced some beautiful vehicles which have not yet been delivered. All of them, however fail in the most important metric – each of these announced and existing cars has less range than our Model 3.
It is as if the existing manufacturers believe that they just have to get products into the general ballpark already defined by Tesla and customers will flock to them and away from Tesla. I believe that this is a massive miscalculation. It may be – just as Android and Samsung have challenged Apple's dominance in the phone business – that a Tesla equal may eventually emerge from the pack, but I highly doubt that a Tesla killer is in the cards.
A final lesson can be taken from the Apple - Tesla comparison. Apple continues to refine its products years after the death of Steve Jobs. It continues to produce beautiful and well-designed phones, tablets and computers under the leadership of Tim Cook and Jony Ive, but Apple no longer innovates as it did in the days of Steve Jobs. Apple is now a trillion dollar company and no longer the upstart; it has become the industry standard, protecting and extending its market share and profits. It no longer has to bet the company and it never will again.
Apple's place in the tech world will -- one day -- be taken by a company which by necessity is willing to risk everything for a big breakthrough. We don't yet know who that will be.
Tesla, though, is still an upstart. As Elon Musk has said, he was forced to bet the company to ramp up Model 3 production this summer. He has said that the company was within a few weeks of death. He has also said that he will never again have to bet the company on a product.
This is reassuring, of course, but at the same time complacency will be the enemy of Tesla as an innovator. The company has to stay hungry, stay desperate and to continue to think of itself as on the edge of failure. One day Elon Musk and his ludicrous drive and focus will be gone. Then we will see if its corporate culture will survive. I have no doubt that the company will.
Friday, December 28, 2018
5: The Tech of Tesla
Tesla cars are computers on wheels. Just as Apple transformed the mobile phone world in 2007 with the introduction of the iPhone, Tesla has transformed the automotive world. In a later post I am going to discuss the similarities and differences between these two companies.
Like the smartphone, the Tesla operating system is updated from time to time with unprecedented results.
Consumer Reports did a review of the Model 3 a few months ago. They liked the car for the most part but found that the braking distance was unacceptably long for a car of its class. Tesla, however, did something that no other car company could do. Within a couple of days the company prepared a software update that was delivered over the air that corrected flaws in the car's computerized ABS system. Consumer Reports then gave the car a recommended rating.
This is just one example of the way that Tesla has rethought the car. All Teslas have an always on LTE cellular service. This way the company can deliver regular software updates that can add functions and incorporate suggestions from customers. An early example was the addition of the "creep" mode that simulates the operation of an automatic transmission car when the driver takes his/her foot off the gas from a stop. I myself don't miss creeping at all!
These updates also add functionality to the Autopilot system. In the few weeks that we have had our car Blue there have been about four software updates (although I think we are about three behind for some reason). These updates are not all farts, romance mode and new Atari games. They include genuine and important improvements to the functioning of the car.
It is easy to predict that other manufacturers will adopt similar over the air updates, but as with many innovations that others will copy, Tesla was there first.
As many Tesla owners observe, their car just keeps getting better, and since nearly all functions are controlled by the car's computer(s) nearly all functions can improve over time. Sadly, software alone can't heat the steering wheel or add a heads up display!
However, the real promise of the Tesla approach will come when its already promising Autopilot software evolves towards true autonomous driving. It seems that this will not come in a single massive update but will come to Tesla owners incrementally as Autopilot functions are enhanced and less and less human intervention is required. Elon Musk stated some time ago that all Teslas would now be built with the hardware that would enable full self-driving ability, although there was a subsequent announcement of a computer update to take full advantage of this ability.
We already have Summon, which enables limited control of the car from outside the car. It is guaranteed to make non-Tesla folks freak out. This function will in due course enable more complex manoeuvers of the car in the complete absence of a driver.
The Tesla audio system is already good but I can see it being enhanced with the availability of Apple Music or Spotify with a simple over the air update. The current built-in streaming service, Slacker, is OK in a pinch but limited. In fact, subject to hardware limitations, the possibilities for ongoing improvement of the user interface and driving and control functions of the car is virtually unlimited. I can imagine new traction control settings or settings for mud and sand as you get in some off-road vehicles for example.
Another technical innovation is the integration with a smartphone although to some degree other manufacturers are picking up on this idea. None of them, however, can match the range of functions already available with the Tesla app, let alone what will be coming in future.
I have mentioned Teslafi.com, a paid website that can access the data from the car and produces in awesome detail a report of where you have been, how fast you were going, how much charge you used and just about every other variable imaginable. It is awesome.
At the same time, all of this raises some sinister issues. If my car is always sending information out into the ether, how can I be sure that it is only being received in accordance with my wishes? I assume that Tesla has access to all of this information and that somewhere along the way I signed a user agreement giving them that access, even though I don't recall it specifically. There are serious privacy concerns. Can I be tracked through my car? Can I one day be charged with speeding because of data from my car? Could a hacker corrupt the operating system of my car and cause it to crash?
The truth is, we have little idea how vulnerable our Tesla cars might be to the guys wearing black hats. The problem will be even more serious in the relatively near future. In introducing its semi truck, Tesla predicted convoys of autonomous trucks following a lead vehicle. If the connection among all these vehicles is broken or corrupted, what kind of chaos could result? In time we can envision a rush hour in which all cars are autonomously driving a few inches apart, moving in unison like a flock of birds.
Can we really put our faith in the software and hardware that will give us full autonomous driving? For now I enjoy the limited driver assistance of Autopilot, but I am still the driver. But will we have to start worrying about firewalls and virus protection for our cars?
Like the smartphone, the Tesla operating system is updated from time to time with unprecedented results.
Consumer Reports did a review of the Model 3 a few months ago. They liked the car for the most part but found that the braking distance was unacceptably long for a car of its class. Tesla, however, did something that no other car company could do. Within a couple of days the company prepared a software update that was delivered over the air that corrected flaws in the car's computerized ABS system. Consumer Reports then gave the car a recommended rating.
This is just one example of the way that Tesla has rethought the car. All Teslas have an always on LTE cellular service. This way the company can deliver regular software updates that can add functions and incorporate suggestions from customers. An early example was the addition of the "creep" mode that simulates the operation of an automatic transmission car when the driver takes his/her foot off the gas from a stop. I myself don't miss creeping at all!
These updates also add functionality to the Autopilot system. In the few weeks that we have had our car Blue there have been about four software updates (although I think we are about three behind for some reason). These updates are not all farts, romance mode and new Atari games. They include genuine and important improvements to the functioning of the car.
 |
| Release Notes for a Tesla Software Update |
It is easy to predict that other manufacturers will adopt similar over the air updates, but as with many innovations that others will copy, Tesla was there first.
As many Tesla owners observe, their car just keeps getting better, and since nearly all functions are controlled by the car's computer(s) nearly all functions can improve over time. Sadly, software alone can't heat the steering wheel or add a heads up display!
However, the real promise of the Tesla approach will come when its already promising Autopilot software evolves towards true autonomous driving. It seems that this will not come in a single massive update but will come to Tesla owners incrementally as Autopilot functions are enhanced and less and less human intervention is required. Elon Musk stated some time ago that all Teslas would now be built with the hardware that would enable full self-driving ability, although there was a subsequent announcement of a computer update to take full advantage of this ability.
We already have Summon, which enables limited control of the car from outside the car. It is guaranteed to make non-Tesla folks freak out. This function will in due course enable more complex manoeuvers of the car in the complete absence of a driver.
The Tesla audio system is already good but I can see it being enhanced with the availability of Apple Music or Spotify with a simple over the air update. The current built-in streaming service, Slacker, is OK in a pinch but limited. In fact, subject to hardware limitations, the possibilities for ongoing improvement of the user interface and driving and control functions of the car is virtually unlimited. I can imagine new traction control settings or settings for mud and sand as you get in some off-road vehicles for example.
Another technical innovation is the integration with a smartphone although to some degree other manufacturers are picking up on this idea. None of them, however, can match the range of functions already available with the Tesla app, let alone what will be coming in future.
I have mentioned Teslafi.com, a paid website that can access the data from the car and produces in awesome detail a report of where you have been, how fast you were going, how much charge you used and just about every other variable imaginable. It is awesome.
At the same time, all of this raises some sinister issues. If my car is always sending information out into the ether, how can I be sure that it is only being received in accordance with my wishes? I assume that Tesla has access to all of this information and that somewhere along the way I signed a user agreement giving them that access, even though I don't recall it specifically. There are serious privacy concerns. Can I be tracked through my car? Can I one day be charged with speeding because of data from my car? Could a hacker corrupt the operating system of my car and cause it to crash?
The truth is, we have little idea how vulnerable our Tesla cars might be to the guys wearing black hats. The problem will be even more serious in the relatively near future. In introducing its semi truck, Tesla predicted convoys of autonomous trucks following a lead vehicle. If the connection among all these vehicles is broken or corrupted, what kind of chaos could result? In time we can envision a rush hour in which all cars are autonomously driving a few inches apart, moving in unison like a flock of birds.
Can we really put our faith in the software and hardware that will give us full autonomous driving? For now I enjoy the limited driver assistance of Autopilot, but I am still the driver. But will we have to start worrying about firewalls and virus protection for our cars?
Thursday, December 27, 2018
4: Is Range Anxiety a Thing?
Yes. Or no, depending. Sometimes but not all the time. For some people, but not for everyone. Let me explain.
We have a garage in which is installed a Tesla wall charger. It requires a 240 volt connection (same as a clothes dryer) and provides 50 amps into our car when it is at home. The bottom line is that it will fully charge the car in about 5-6 hours but most nights it is only required to replenish a couple of hundred kilometers, which takes an hour or two.
Each morning we have a car that is ready to go with a rated charge of about 410 km. Yes, the Model 3 is rated at 495 km, but it is recommended that you not fully charge the battery on a regular basis to maintain its life. Seven or 8 days out of 10 that range will be entirely sufficient for our needs. No range anxiety whatsoever. We live in the country and we frequently have to drive 100 km or more into the city and back. No problem there whatsoever.
The rest of the time involves longer trips. So far I have taken trips to two locations, one 450 km away and the other 125 km away. The longer trip involved using Tesla Superchargers and fortunately my route included ample opportunities for using them. In a couple of half hour stops, coinciding with a meal or snack, the car would be ready to go again.
The shorter trip, oddly, involved a little more anxiety. A round trip of 250 km should of course be comfortably within the range of a car with 410 km of range. However, asterisks are involved here.
The first asterisk is that in cold weather the range of an electric car will suffer significantly. November and December are not warm months in Ottawa and so we have not had the chance to experience the car in warm conditions. The 410 km of rated range translates in winter into about 250 km of actual range. You will note that this is the length of my round trip. The second asterisk is that the car will lose range sitting idly overnight – the so-called "vampire drain." That meant that I had to find a hotel with a charger at the destination. Fortunately, I was able to do this and fortunately the charger was available and fortunately, it worked to perfection.
I also had to leave the car at the airport for the better part of a week and vampire drain slowly sapped the battery. I was able to follow this from the Tesla app on my phone but without having any means to do anything about it. Fortunately, by the time I came back there was plenty of range left to get me home comfortably.
So in my experience to date, range has not been an issue. However, this is not to say that it is not an issue that you have to be aware of all the time. Driving a conventional vehicle for most of us does not involve much thought about the level of fuel in the tank. If the fuel is low we can replenish it virtually everywhere in a few minutes. Driving an electric car requires planning. However, if you are properly set up, that planning becomes second nature and, quite frankly, liberating when you can set out with a full charge each morning.
However for many drivers, range will definitely be a factor. In fact, many urbanites who rely on street parking or who live in apartments will not have ready access to dependable overnight charging. The lack of overnight charging transforms the range issue dramatically. In my garage I have the equivalent of a private gas station that silently, dependably and inexpensively (more on that later) replenishes my fuel in the night.
Your experience may vary.
Using an amazing site called Teslafi.com I am able to track my car's usage in almost creepy detail. I discovered the site about 2 weeks after acquiring the car. In the six weeks since, I have driven the car 3600 km and I have paid about $120, combining Supercharging costs and home electricity usage. I have also used free chargers on two occasions, reducing the average cost further. Bottom line is that I am paying 3.3 cents to power the car each kilometer. In summer, when the car's range returns to normal, that should come down to closer to 2 cents.
Our internal combustion car needs premium gas, which is pretty standard among luxury cars. Gas prices are low at the moment but premium is still, well, premium. Let's say $1.20 a litre. The car will use 8 litres per 100 km. So that is $9.60 for 100 km, or 9.6 cents per kilometer. This is not a V8 gas guzzler but a fuel-efficient turbocharged 2 litre 4 cylinder car. The Tesla has vastly greater performance for a fraction of the cost.
So, is range anxiety a thing? Yes it can be, but the offsetting benefits are very considerable.
We have a garage in which is installed a Tesla wall charger. It requires a 240 volt connection (same as a clothes dryer) and provides 50 amps into our car when it is at home. The bottom line is that it will fully charge the car in about 5-6 hours but most nights it is only required to replenish a couple of hundred kilometers, which takes an hour or two.
 |
| Our Tesla Wall Charger |
The rest of the time involves longer trips. So far I have taken trips to two locations, one 450 km away and the other 125 km away. The longer trip involved using Tesla Superchargers and fortunately my route included ample opportunities for using them. In a couple of half hour stops, coinciding with a meal or snack, the car would be ready to go again.
The shorter trip, oddly, involved a little more anxiety. A round trip of 250 km should of course be comfortably within the range of a car with 410 km of range. However, asterisks are involved here.
The first asterisk is that in cold weather the range of an electric car will suffer significantly. November and December are not warm months in Ottawa and so we have not had the chance to experience the car in warm conditions. The 410 km of rated range translates in winter into about 250 km of actual range. You will note that this is the length of my round trip. The second asterisk is that the car will lose range sitting idly overnight – the so-called "vampire drain." That meant that I had to find a hotel with a charger at the destination. Fortunately, I was able to do this and fortunately the charger was available and fortunately, it worked to perfection.
I also had to leave the car at the airport for the better part of a week and vampire drain slowly sapped the battery. I was able to follow this from the Tesla app on my phone but without having any means to do anything about it. Fortunately, by the time I came back there was plenty of range left to get me home comfortably.
So in my experience to date, range has not been an issue. However, this is not to say that it is not an issue that you have to be aware of all the time. Driving a conventional vehicle for most of us does not involve much thought about the level of fuel in the tank. If the fuel is low we can replenish it virtually everywhere in a few minutes. Driving an electric car requires planning. However, if you are properly set up, that planning becomes second nature and, quite frankly, liberating when you can set out with a full charge each morning.
However for many drivers, range will definitely be a factor. In fact, many urbanites who rely on street parking or who live in apartments will not have ready access to dependable overnight charging. The lack of overnight charging transforms the range issue dramatically. In my garage I have the equivalent of a private gas station that silently, dependably and inexpensively (more on that later) replenishes my fuel in the night.
Your experience may vary.
Using an amazing site called Teslafi.com I am able to track my car's usage in almost creepy detail. I discovered the site about 2 weeks after acquiring the car. In the six weeks since, I have driven the car 3600 km and I have paid about $120, combining Supercharging costs and home electricity usage. I have also used free chargers on two occasions, reducing the average cost further. Bottom line is that I am paying 3.3 cents to power the car each kilometer. In summer, when the car's range returns to normal, that should come down to closer to 2 cents.
Our internal combustion car needs premium gas, which is pretty standard among luxury cars. Gas prices are low at the moment but premium is still, well, premium. Let's say $1.20 a litre. The car will use 8 litres per 100 km. So that is $9.60 for 100 km, or 9.6 cents per kilometer. This is not a V8 gas guzzler but a fuel-efficient turbocharged 2 litre 4 cylinder car. The Tesla has vastly greater performance for a fraction of the cost.
So, is range anxiety a thing? Yes it can be, but the offsetting benefits are very considerable.
3: The Car
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| The Other Happy Owner with Blue |
The first impression is that the car is simply like no other. Sitting behind the steering wheel that first night, the view straight ahead was entirely dark. A 15 inch screen in the center of the dashboard provided all of the information - a huge navigation map, the speedometer and everything else that is normally on all of the gauges, buttons and switches of a normal car. Stepping on the accelerator, the car moved ahead silently as if propelled by a hidden hand, like magic (actually magnetism!) Lifting up from the accelerator, the car slowed equally silently to a stop without applying the brakes. That first night felt like driving into an unknown future, but doing so in a spaceship. I had to call our neighbour for advice on how to get some simple things done!
The second observation is that the car quickly becomes utterly normal. The controls become second nature and the strangeness of the large display is forgotten. It is just a comfortable, high performance and utterly competent vehicle.
I come to Tesla ownership from a history of owning German cars: BMWs, Audis and Mercedes-Benzes. For fun I bought an older Bentley and a couple of Mazda Miatas. In other words, I like good cars, cars that perform and handle well and are built to last.
So, with this background, what do I make of the Model 3? It lacks a few creature comforts that I have become accustomed to, things like a heated steering wheel, a heads up display and ventilated seats. I am not a fan of black interiors, and the alternative white interior doesn't really appeal to me. The interior as a whole is simplistic in the extreme and is under designed. I would like to see the interior reflect the aesthetic of recent Mercedes and Volvo cars, but that is a matter of personal taste. I understand that Tesla does not have the luxury of offering multiple options as it ramps up to mass production. So, everyone gets black with the option of white.
It is a superb car in every respect. It is comfortable, fast and practical. As far as I can tell, it is well-built. On the road it seems solid and entirely rattle free. The acceleration is addictive. I look forward to the opportunity to pass slower cars just to feel the thrust of the two electric motors silently propel the car forward, with none of the roaring and revving of a normal engine, as if we are propelled by warp drive.
Even though it has two motors it also has two trunks. If you open the hood of a Nissan Leaf or a Chevrolet Bolt, you see the source of propulsion, not exactly looking like a normal engine, but still a mess of hoses and machinery. They have been conceived of as regular cars with a different power train. In a Model 3, this is all packaged away under or behind the trunks, and this packaging adds to the sense that you are driving something radically different, something radically superior. This packaging also reminds you that you don't need access to the means of propulsion. No spark plugs, no oil changes, no maintenance essentially. So the few oily bits can be safely hidden away.
And yet if you are coming to the car from an Audi or BMW it is instantly familiar in its dimensions, performance, handling and solidity. Other than its much more immediate acceleration it has the same performance as our 2010 Audi S4 did, and that was by far the best car I had ever owned.
It is going to be interesting when the Model 3 gets to Europe. The car is selling like hotcakes in the United States, even though the country is turning its back on sedans in general, in favour of SUVs, and where gasoline is plentiful and cheap. In Europe, gasoline is expensive, cars are still popular and the environmental ethic has taken deeper root. The Model 3 will fit in perfectly with the European conception of a mid-sized luxury car.
This is an American car that is going to be a huge hit in Europe. When did that ever happen before? And then there is China ...
2: The Wait and Taking Delivery
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| Proud New Model 3 Owner |
At the start of the year, production of the rear wheel drive Model 3 was underway amid media reports of poor build quality and other examples of an inept and overreaching company. Over the summer, Elon Musk was living in the factory, troubleshooting the manufacturing process 120 hours a week.
We had expectations of getting a $14,000 rebate from the Ontario government and of getting our car sometime during the year but having no idea when exactly. The rebate vanished with a change of government and our decision to wait for the all-wheel-drive model. We have long snowy winters and I decided many years ago – at the precise moment that I was vainly trying to get a rear wheel drive BMW up a snowy hill – that I would always have all-wheel-drive vehicles. (I did make an exception for the Bentley and a couple of Mazda Miatas, though!)
Tesla has, of course, done away with the traditional dealership model. If you want to buy any other car, you walk into the local dealership and either buy something that they have in stock, something that they can acquire from another dealer, or you can order from the factory. You will of course have to go through a salesperson and there will be a dance over the price involving a consultation between that salesperson and their manager leading to a handshake. The process will work itself out and you will have a pretty good idea when you can get your hands on your new car.
With Tesla, at least here in Ottawa, there is no bricks and mortar Tesla store and you will find yourself dealing by email and the occasional phone call with a representative who, you quickly discover, is only one member of a series of teams who will determine your delivery experience.
Once we had confirmation that our car was available, and a VIN number had been assigned, I was put in touch with a young gentleman called PK who was an Inside Delivery Manager. Throughout our frequently frustrating exchanges, PK was totally professional, friendly and sympathetic. He even responded to emails from when he was on vacation. He admitted to me that the whole delivery system was under resourced and overstressed. He spent his days dealing with people anxious to get their hands on their new wonder car and having to apologize for logistical glitches.
It turned out, however, that PK was part of a team based in Toronto to deal with deliveries but that the delivery process was managed out of Montréal by another team. Our trade-in was handled by a third team. The actual delivery was made by an independent contracted carrier taking direction from the team in Montréal. PK seemed to have a great deal of difficulty getting information from the Montréal team and it also seems that the Montréal team had limited contact with the carrier.
After several frustrating false starts, we took delivery one evening. The car was backed off a large trailer and for the first time we sat in our new Model 3. We had arranged to take delivery and hand in our Evoque trade-in but the driver had no "paperwork" related to the trade-in and we had to leave it behind.
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| The Delivery of Blue |
So, what can I say about the delivery experience? It was frustrating in the extreme but all that frustration washed away as soon as we stepped inside the car. A conventional dealer would have washed the car and it would have been spotless inside and out. Our car was pristine inside but filthy outside, having been on a lengthy highway trip in bad weather.
I understood that Tesla was doing something absolutely unprecedented in our time, namely transitioning from a low volume manufacturer to mass-market levels of production. The growing pains of the company had been highly public. They had even started making cars in a tent! In fact, our car was probably made in that tent.
Elon Musk polarized people like very few public figures. Clearly, he is a genius and a visionary. On the other hand, he has an impulsive adolescent streak that makes observers question his maturity. He is relentlessly truthful but also relentlessly overoptimistic when it comes to predictions and deadlines. As the face of a public company, his every tweet and interview is scrutinized and criticized. Institutional investors openly bet against his success. And of course, he is dividing his time between running a revolutionary electric car startup and a private space company.
All of this is part of the Tesla mystique and part of the allure of the company.
For all of these reasons, Model 3 purchasers tend to forgive the clumsy delivery procedure. However, this would not be so if the car itself disappointed.
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